January 2007

Pitching- Kurt Isenberg

Kurt Isenberg LHP
Height: 6’0’’ Weight: 190
Age: 1/82 Signed: 2003 (4-James Madison) Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-91 fastball, curve, change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

3.88

 

 

51.0

 

 

48

 

 

15-34

 

 

.242

 

 

A-

 

 

 

 

 

5.61

 

 

61.0

 

 

73

 

 

20-40

 

 

.299

 

 

A+

 

 

2005

 

 

3.54

 

 

145.0

 

 

147

 

 

32-90

 

 

.261

 

 

A+

 

 

2006

 

 

5.67

 

 

87.1

 

 

121

 

 

22-55

 

 

.330

 

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

3.30

 

 

46.1

 

 

49

 

 

14-36

 

 

.277

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats (Dunedin):
Vs Left: .219
Vs Right: .290
Bases Empty: .319
Runners On: .233
Scoring Position: .212
WHIP: 1.36
GO/AO: 2.35

Notes: When things are going poorly, Isenberg is basically a one-pitch (fastball) pitcher. He projects to be a LOOGY if he cannot master the change-up or improve the consistency with his curveball. He has an athletic build and knows how to pitch. He’s a solid athlete who fields his position well. He was a two-way player in college, until he focused more on pitching in his junior year. Isenberg has trouble repeating his release point.

Pitching- Billy Carnline

Billy Carnline RHP
Height: 6’3’’ Weight: 185
Age: 1/84 Signed: 2005 (12-Texas Tech) Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 fastball, slider, curve, change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

 

4.61

 

 

41.0

 

 

41

 

 

20-36

 

 

.261

 

 

NYP

 

 

2006

 

 

2.70

 

 

66.2

 

 

44

 

 

12-66

 

 

.182

 

 

A-

 

 

 

 

 

3.47

 

 

57.0

 

 

58

 

 

16-31

 

 

.261

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats (Dunedin):
Vs Left: .247
Vs Right: .272
Bases Empty: .227
Runners On: .321
Scoring Position: .308
WHIP: 1.32
GO/AO: 0.89

Notes: Carnline’s pro debut numbers do not look nearly as good as they did going into the last month of the season. He struggled mightily when he was placed in the rotation. However, the same can not be said for his first full season in the majors when he adjusted to the starting role, although he was shut down late in the year as a precaution and to avoid throwing too many innings. The right-hander was drafted by the New York Yankees out of high school. His stuff is a tick better when he pitches in relief. Carnline needs to induce more ground balls to be successful at higher levels.

Pitching- Danny Core

Danny Core RHP
Height:  6’1’’ Weight:
195
Age: 7/81   Signed: 2003 (7-Florida Atlantic)   Options: 3
Repertoire: average fastball, plus curve

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

3.32

 

 

157.0

 

 

137

 

 

53-132

 

 

.238

 

 

A-

 

 

2005

 

 

7.24

 

 

13.2

 

 

13

 

 

10-16

 

 

.255

 

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

6.32

 

 

105.1

 

 

120

 

 

42-73

 

 

.285

 

 

A-

 

 

2006

 

 

4.41

 

 

79.2

 

 

73

 

 

35-87

 

 

.244

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .267
Vs Right: .230
Bases Empty: .201
Runners On: .300
Scoring Position: .283
WHIP: 1.37
GO/AO: 0.89

Notes: Core possesses average stuff but he has big heart. He is probably better-suited for the bullpen because of his stuff but appears more comfortable with starting. In 2006 hitters batted .263 against him as a reliever (47 innings), compared to .212 as a starter. (32.2 innings). 2005 was a lost year. Core gets hit a long way when he pitches up in the zone. He has a medium build and is a solid, durable pitcher. Core is a good competitor and knows how to pitch. Core is not afraid to go after hitters.

Pitching- Eric Fowler

Eric Fowler LHP
Height: 6’3’’ Weight: 215
Age: 3/83 Signed: 2005 (5-Mississippi) Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 fastball, MLB curve, average change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

 

3.02

 

 

56.2

 

 

42

 

 

29-55

 

 

.202

 

 

NYP

 

 

2006

 

 

3.74

 

 

149.0

 

 

164

 

 

36-116

 

 

.274

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .326
Vs Right: .258
Bases Empty: .279
Runners On: .269
Scoring Position: .283
WHIP: 1.37
GO/AO: 1.87

Notes: Fowler struggled with his control during his pro debut, but improved it last season. However, he may have been in the strike zone too much given the number of hits he allowed. Fowler has solid-average stuff. His slider comes and goes but when it’s on he can be a strikeout pitcher. He hasn’t responded well to past moves to the bullpen, though that’s what scouts consider his better future role. If he stays more consistent, he could become a solid fourth starter in the majors.

Jays are right-handed heavy. So what?

Lefty-righty match-ups, in my opinion, are often over-hyped. If you look at the projected Jays’ starting lineup for 2007 and completely ignore match-ups and platoons, it still looks pretty good – even with only two left-handed batters in the lineup:

Jays’ 2006 numbers (AVG OBP SLG) versus lefthanders:
Reed Johnson   .323 .422 .445
Alex Rios   .295 .341 .533
Vernon Wells   .333 .392 .506
Frank Thomas  .245 .429 .538
Troy Glaus  .292 .413 .635
Lyle Overbay  .284 .305 .389
Gregg Zaun  .373 .492 .627
Aaron Hill  .298 .362 .391
Royce Clayton .255 .294 .363

Jays’ 2006 numbers (AVG OBP SLG) versus righthanders:
Reed Johnson .316 .370 .498
Alex Rios .305 .353 .509
Vernon Wells .292 .346 .554
Frank Thomas .278 .365 .547
Troy Glaus .238 .334 .471
Lyle Overbay .322 .395 .554
Gregg Zaun .251 .333 .427
Aaron Hill .288 .344 .384
Royce Clayton .232 .277 .309

*Adam Lind
Vs Lefties in TO -  .444 .545 .556
Vs Lefties in AAA – .265 .409 .382 

Vs Righties in TO – .353 .389 .608
Vs Righties in AAA – .452 .538 .693

I’d take either one of those lineups against just about any pitching staff in baseball.

Pitching- Orlando Trias

Orlando Trias RHP
Height: 6’3’’ Weight: 180
Age: 3/84  Signed: 2003 (FA) Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-90 mphfastball, sinker, slider, change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

1.80

 

 

95.0

 

 

70

 

 

16-79

 

 

NA

 

 

DSL

 

 

2005

 

 

3.89

 

 

81.0

 

 

85

 

 

21-54

 

 

.264

 

 

NYP

 

 

2006

 

 

3.82

 

 

153.1

 

 

161

 

 

48-88

 

 

.272

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .290
Vs Right: .254
Bases Empty: ..277
Runners On: .265
Scoring Position: .271
WHIP: 1.36
GO/AO: 1.17

Notes: Trias had an effective season in 2006 despite two-level promotion to start the year. He is predominantly a fastball-slider pitcher and needs to keep the ball on the ground.

Pitching- Milton Tavarez

Milton Tavarez RHP
Height: 6’2’’ Weight:190
Age: 3/82 Signed: 2000 FA-Boston) Options: 3
Repertoire: Unavailable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

4.55

 

 

63.0

 

 

69

 

 

26-63

 

 

.268

 

 

A-

 

 

2005

 

 

3.36

 

 

59.0

 

 

56

 

 

21-50

 

 

.252

 

 

A+

 

 

2006

 

 

6.71

 

 

51.0

 

 

63

 

 

29-65

 

 

.296

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .340
Vs Right: .259
Bases Empty: .263
Runners On: .333
Scoring Position: .274
WHIP: 1.80
GO/AO: 0.67

Notes: Tavarez was taken in minor league Rule 5 draft from the Red Sox in 2004. He struggles to make the “big pitch.” But was fourth in league saves in 2006, despite a brutal 6.71 ERA. He stuggles with runners on base and lefties his .340.

Pitching- Robert Ray

Robert Ray RHP
Height: 6’4’’ Weight: 190
Age: 1/84 Signed: 2005 (7-Texas A&M) Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-93 fastball, curve, slider, developing change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

 

2.77

 

 

61.2

 

 

46

 

 

20-58

 

 

.204

 

 

NYP

 

 

2006

 

 

4.99

 

 

48.2

 

 

59

 

 

13-37

 

 

.306

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .347
Vs Right: .265
Bases Empty: .262
Runners On: .360
Scoring Position: .367
WHIP: 1.50
GO/AO: 1.06

Notes: Ray has tremendous potential and was considered a premium talent after his sophomore season with Texas A&M. He features a low to mid-90s fastball with explosive late-life and a plus curveball. He also has a good change-up that gets left-hand batters out. Ray needs better command and also needs to set up hitters more He is tall and lanky with a loose arm. He needs to avoid over-throwing his curve and continue refining his changeup. Ray battled injuries in 2006 and needs to show he can stay healthy. He also needs to be a little more coachable.

Pitching- Russ Savickas

Russell Savickas RHP
Height: 6’4’’ Weight: 170
Age: 7/83 Signed: 2002 (9-High School) Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-90 mph fastball, slider, change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

 

5.79

 

 

37.1

 

 

39

 

 

15-23

 

 

.273

 

 

R

 

 

2005

 

 

4.96

 

 

90.2

 

 

111

 

 

37-70

 

 

.309

 

 

A-

 

 

 

 

 

0.00

 

 

1.0

 

 

1

 

 

2-0

 

 

.250

 

 

A+

 

 

2006

 

 

7.36

 

 

3.2

 

 

4

 

 

3-0

 

 

.286

 

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

3.18

 

 

76.1

 

 

79

 

 

28-73

 

 

.275

 

 

A-

 

 

 

 

 

4.11

 

 

65.2

 

 

73

 

 

28-34

 

 

.280

 

 

A+

 

Secondary Stats (Dunedin):
Vs Left: .295
Vs Right: .268
Bases Empty: .261
Runners On: .301
Scoring Position: .260
WHIP: 1.54
GO/AO: 1.36

Notes: Savickas has been slow to develop and spent three seasons in rookie ball. He is too hittable but he induces a significant number of ground balls. Savickas has a lanky, long, needle-like body with long arms and legs. He is built like Jamie Moyer with an athletic, loose, strong arm. He throws his fastballs mostly at 88-89 mph with tailing and sinking action. His overhand, downward curveball is his out-pitch. Savickas possesses solid mound presence and goes after hitters. He is also a quality person off the field. He had better success in Lansing in 2006 because he induced more groundballs (3.25 GO/AO) than at Dunedin

Jays make “minor” moves

The Jays made some noise on the minor league front this week with a few moves. The biggest move they made was the addition of a minor league affiliate in the Gulf Coast League. The league is designed to acclimatize recent high school draft picks and Latin players making their North American debuts.

Last season the Jays had six affiliates as well – Syracuse, New Hampshire, Dunedin, Lansing, Auburn and Pulaski – but Pulaski was dropped after the 2006. Both Auburn and Pulaski were in similar leagues, both of which tend to attract first-year players signed out of college programs. As such, Pulaski became redundant.

The Jays said this was not the plan when Pulaski was dropped and they fully intended to go with five affiliates for the 2007 season (to save money) but that never made any sense. Why would the Jays leave Auburn as the only introductory team when they finally began to focus on drafting high school players, they signed a major Latin talent in Balbino Fuenmayor and they signed top Latin talent evaluator Marco Paddy away from the Atlanta Braves?

The Jays have teams in both the Dominican Summer League and Venezuelan Summer League. Most teams do, as this is where they develop the (usually) raw Latin teenagers for a year or three before bringing them over to North America.

In 2007, there could be an influx of Latin players into the lower levels of the minors as baseball and the U.S. government have worked to remove some roadblocks that make acquiring seasonal work VISAs for players difficult. As it stands right now, VISAs and in short supply so a player must truly impress to receive one.

The Jays have a number of players – especially pitchers – that had above-average seasons in the Dominican Summer League and deserve a spot on a North American squad. As well, Balbino Fuenmayor, 17, will very likely begin his career in the short-season Gulf Coast League this June.

The Latin players that could come to North America this year include (GO/AO = ground ball out to fly ball out ratio):
LHP Luis Perez, 22, 1.38 ERA, 3.35 GO/AO, .158 AVG allowed
RHP Joel Carreno, 20, 1.53 ERA, 1.70 GO/AO, .168 AVG allowed
LHP Maximilliano Belliard, 21, 3.59 ERA, 2.27 GO/AO, .248 AVG allowed
RHP Juan Bustamante, 20,  2.80 ERA, 1.50 GO/AO, .215 AVG allowed
LHP Joel Castillo, 19, 1.57 ERA, 0.50 GO/AO, .158 AVG allowed

2B Dany Faris, 21, .325 AVG .390 OBA .453 SLG  21/21 BB/K

OF Moises Sierra, 18, .253 AVG .345 OBA .376 SLG

Although Sierra’s numbers do not look that great, he was given a six figure signing bonus based on his physical tools and the Jays may decide to get him stateside to further his development. At 22, Perez is an older prospect (for a Latin player) but his numbers were filthy and he was the Jays’ Latin player of the year.

Other players who should find themselves in the Gulf Coast League this year:
Australians: catcher Chris House and pitcher Josh Wells (recovering from Tommy John surgery); 2006 draft picks outfielder Mikal Gabarino, infielder Jonathan Del Campo, as well as Canadian pitchers Brad Cuthbertson and Michael Lynch (an undrafted free agent), both of whom signed late last season but have yet to make their debut.

In other news, the Jays signed LHP Jesse Carlson to a minor league contract. He will compete for a spot on the already crowded Syracuse Chiefs’ pitching staff. Carlson pitched for the Jays in 2005 and was originally drafted by the Detroit Tigers.

The Jays also signed 1B Manuel Rodriguez, who was let go by the Atlanta Braves. Rodriguez, 22, played last season in for Atlanta’s A-affiliate in Rome. He has some undeveloped power but has walked only 27 times in 697 career at-bats, albeit with a .271 average. Rodriguez with likely begin the year in Lansing backing up 2006 draft pick Luke Hopkins.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.