December 2006
Pitching-Edgar Estanga
Edgar Estanga LHP
Height: 5’10’’ Weight: 185
Age: 10/85 Signed: 2006 (FA) Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-90 fastball, change, slurve
|
2004
|
2.06
|
39.1
|
34
|
9-37
|
NA
|
DSL
|
|
2005
|
2.05
|
79.0
|
72
|
8-109
|
NA
|
DSL
|
|
2006
|
3.49
|
28.1
|
26
|
3-30
|
.241
|
R
|
Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .160
Vs Right: .265
Bases Empty: .197
Runners On: .298
Scoring Position: .300
WHIP: 1.02
GO/AO: 0.96
Notes: Estanga displayed excellent control in the Dominican Summer League and the Appalachian League. He has walked only 20 batters in his pro career, which spans almost 150 innings. He took to the bullpen OK and was third in holds in Appalachian League. The lefty is undersized at 5’10’’ but he could be another Davis Romero, although Romero throws harder.
Career batting stats versus Tampa Bay pitchers
|
|
Scott Kazmir
|
Casey Fossum
|
Jae Seo
|
Jamie Shields
|
Tim Corcoran
|
|
|
Reed Johson
|
.259/.666
|
.211/.611
|
.286/.572
|
.000/.000
|
—
|
|
|
Aaron Hill
|
.267/.580
|
.636/1.623
|
.600/1.267
|
.000/.000
|
—
|
|
|
Vernon Wells |
.316/.1.041
|
.241/.577
|
.571/1.285
|
.000/.000
|
—
|
|
|
Troy Glaus
|
.500/1.167
|
.176/.588
|
.200/.829
|
.000/.333
|
—
|
|
|
Frank Thomas
|
.250/.650
|
.333/1.833
|
1.000/3.500
|
1.000/2.000
|
.500/1.750
|
|
|
Alex Rios
|
.238/.667
|
.267/.983
|
.333/.666
|
.000/.000
|
—
|
|
|
Lyle Overbay |
.200/.533
|
.400/.867
|
.750/1.833
|
.000/.000
|
1.000/2.000
|
|
|
Gregg Zaun
|
.200/.629
|
.250/1.000
|
.000/.000
|
—
|
—
|
|
|
Royce Clayton
|
—
|
.167/.542
|
.308/.770
|
.333/.666
|
.333/.666
|
Notes: There isn’t a lot to go by in terms of match-ups simply because the Jays’ hitters have not seen any of these pitchers very much. Frank Thomas really appears to tee-off on inexperienced pitchers such as Seo, Sheilds, Corcoran and Howell. And Howell really hasn’t had much success against anyone. It’s hard to believe, at this point, that he was a first round pick by Kansas City.
In case you were curious: The top five career hitters (.OPS) against each of the top five Tampa Bay Rays’ starting pitchers are:
Scott Kazmir (minimum 10 plate appearances): Bobby Kielty (1.648), Gary Sheffield (1.434), Luis Matos (1.393), Craig Monroe (1.195), Brian Roberts (1.117)
Casey Fossum (minimum 15 plate
appearances): Phil Nevin (1.819), Paul LoDuca (1.514), Jose Hernandez (1.413), Adrian Beltre (1.310), Jay Gibbons (1.171)
Jae Weong Seo (minimum 15 plate appearances): Juan Encarnacion (1.493), Preston Wilson (1.381), Jim Thome (1.376), Orlando Cabrera (1.371), Alex Gonzalez (1.366)
Jamie Shields (minimum five plate appearances): David Ortiz (2.100), Jeff Conine (1.833), Nick Markakis (1.800), Kevin Millar (1.800), Aaron Guiel (1.750)
Tim Corcoran (minimum five plate appearances): Eric Chavez (2.467), Jorge Posada (1.800), Rondell White (1.700), Derek Jeter (1.417), Justin Morneau (1.334)
Rain delay information:Fossum throws three different overhand curveballs. The first curveball is a tight-rotating 1-7 curveball that has a velocity in the low to mid 70′s, but a pitch that Fossum struggles to
throw effectively over the plate for strikes and at times remains too flat. The second curveball is also a 1-7 pitch, has a moderate break while clocking in between 65-70 MPH, and can effectively throw for strikes. The third curveball is a 12-6 curveball with an enormous break, making it nearly unhittable, and
has been clocked as low as 43MPH in an MLB game. While the pitch has been a very effective pitch for him to use, often landing for strikes or causing pop outs, he regulates the pitch as a change-of-pace pitch to prevent batters from becoming used to it. Fossum dubbed this pitch the "Fossum Flip", and
it is essentially a form of the Eephus pitch.
A Eephus pitch is a “junk pitch” which “has nothing on it.” The pitch has very little velocity and
catches the hitter off-guard. Its invention is attributed to Rip Sewell of the Pirates in the 1930s. (Source – Wikipedia.org)
*Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com
Pitching-Drew Taylor
Drew Taylor LHP
Height: 6’5’’ Weight: 225
Age: 8/82 Signed: 2006 (FA) Options: 3
Repertoire: Unavailable
|
2006
|
3.95
|
27.1
|
21
|
11-37
|
.208
|
R
|
Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .214
Vs Right: .205
Bases Empty: .196
Runners On: .220
Scoring Position: .212
WHIP: 1.17
GO/AO: 1.18
Notes: Taylor, a Canadian, was signed as an undrafted free agent. He is another good-sized lefty in the Jays’ lower minors
*Stats include ERA, innings pitched, hits allowed, BB/K, average allowed
Pitching-Alan Stidfole
Alan Stidfole LHP
Height: 6’2’’ Weight: 175
Age: 3/84 Signed: 2006 (Free agent) Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 mphfastball, slider, change
|
2006
|
3.60
|
20.0
|
19
|
6-22
|
.253
|
Pulaski
|
Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .300
Vs Right: .236
Bases Empty: .265
Runners On: .244
Scoring Position: .263
WHIP: 1.25
GO/AO: 3.00
Notes: Alan is the twin brother of fellow Jays’ prospect Sean Stidfole. The Stidfole twins were the No. 1 and 2 starters at Penn State and enjoyed remarkably similar 2005 seasons. Sean is viewed as a slightly better prospect and Alan was signed as an undrafted free agent. Alan has a four-pitch mix, including an 88-91 mph fastball and a quality slider. Alan hit a rough patch in his debut,
which skewed his numbers a bit.
Career batting stats versus Red Sox
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
Josh Beckett
|
Jonathan Papelbon
|
Tim Wakefield
|
Matt Clement
|
Daisuke Matsuzaka
|
|
Reed Johson
|
.000/.000
|
.167/.334
|
.000/.000
|
.111/.405
|
—
|
—
|
|
Aaron Hill
|
.667/1.334
|
.364/.962
|
.000/.000
|
.000/.000
|
.353/.860
|
—
|
|
Vernon Wells
|
.438/1.007
|
.467/.1.833
|
.000/.000
|
.250/.614
|
.200/.804
|
—
|
|
Troy Glaus
|
.429/1.000
|
.200/1.133
|
.000/.000
|
.261/.824
|
.143/.437
|
—
|
|
Frank Thomas
|
.625.1.181
|
.182/.364
|
.000/.000
|
.194/.740
|
.143/.904
|
—
|
|
Alex Rios
|
.500/1.167
|
.400/.933
|
.750/1.750
|
.385/1.231
|
.286/.698
|
—
|
|
Lyle Overbay
|
—
|
.214/.635
|
.250/.500
|
.333/.666
|
.273/.840
|
—
|
|
Gregg Zaun
|
.235/.810
|
.167/.500
|
.200/.533
|
.231/.564
|
.353/1.068
|
—
|
|
Royce Clayton
|
.395/.980
|
.250/.750
|
—
|
.303/.779
|
.250/.500
|
—
|
Notes: For the most part, the Blue Jays seem to have Curt Schilling’s number. I guess it’s because so many of the batters are good fastball hitters. There seems to be a fair bit of mixed luck with Beckett and the Jays have had no luck against Papelbon, although many players only have three or four at-bats against him. It will be interesting to see how his dominance level reacts to the move to the starting rotation. As for Wakefield, it is always painful to watch the Jays’ batters face him. I doubt Clement will start the year in the rotation for the Red Sox, but you never know. Also expect some very strange swings from the Jays when they face Matsuzaka for the first time, especially if the fabled Gyroball shows up.
In case you were curious: The top five career hitters (.OPS) against each of the top five Boston Red Sox’ starting pitchers are (minimum 20 plate appearances):
Curt Schilling: Derrek Lee (1.521), Tony Fernandez (1.328), David Justice (1.328), Mark Lemke (1.239), Dave Roberts (1.235).
Josh Beckett (minimum 15 plate appearances): Vernon Wells (1.833), Jim Edmonds (1.731), Ty Wigginton (1.475), Albert Pujols (1.115), Cliff Floyd (1.049).
Jonathan Papelbon (minimum five plate appearances): Frank Catalanotto (1.375), Carl Crawford (1.350), Orlando Cabrera (.833), Russ Adams (.715), Gregg Zaun/Travis Lee/Vlad Guerrero (.533)
Tim Wakefield: Dave Nilsson (1.679), Juan Encarnacion (1.676), Olmedo Saenz (1.538), Phil Nevin (1.378), Jose Canseco (1.359)
Matt Clement: Aaron Boone (1.450), Todd Helton (1.365), Brian Giles (1.328), Mike Lieberthal (1.320), Barry Bonds (1.281)
Rain delay information: Josh Beckett became the first Red Sox pitcher to hit a home run in 35 years–since the advent of the designated hitter rule–when he took Phillies’ pitcher Brett Myers deep during an inter-league game on May 20, 2006. (Source – Wikipedia.org)
*Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com
Pitching-Nathan Melek
Nathan Melek RHP
Height: 6’0’’ Weight: 170
Age: 2/84 Signed: 2006 (43-New Mexico) Options: 3
Repertoire: Unavailable
|
2006
|
2.60
|
34.2
|
24
|
12-22
|
.190
|
Pulaski
|
Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .200
Vs Right: .188
Bases Empty: .149
Runners On: .250
Scoring Position: .200
WHIP: 1.05
GO/AO: 1.81
Notes: Melek was third in holds in 2006 in the Appalachian League. He was quietly effective and allowed almost two ground balls to fly ball for every ball put into play. He pitched better with the bases empty then with runners on, which is not uncommon for a young pitcher. Melek did not allow a lot of hits in general and righties had an even tougher time than lefties, having hit only .188.
Pitching is the name of the game
I’ve been saying it for years: Fans tend to expect toomuch from No. 5 starters, as well as No. 4 starters for that matter. Now a
brilliant article at the Hardball Times by Jeff Sackmann
gives some credibility to that belief. I highly recommend you read the entire
article. I only wish he had included innings pitched and BB/K ratios along with
ERAs, but we all have to sleep sometime.
Many fans would love an unlimited budget for their team,
but it is just not feasible for many teams not located in Los
Angeles, New York or Chicago. And pitching is
most sought-after commodity in baseball, so there are many teams that have to
make due with below average starting pitching. Sackmann calculated the average
ERA for the 2006 starters in Major League Baseball:
|
|
No.1
pitcher
|
No. 2
pitcher
|
No.3
Pitcher
|
No. 4
pitcher
|
No. 5
pitcher
|
|
MLB
|
3.60
|
4.14
|
4.58
|
5.10
|
6.24
|
|
AL
|
3.70
|
4.24
|
4.58
|
5.09
|
6.22
|
|
NL
|
3.51
|
4.04
|
4.57
|
5.11
|
6.26
|
With 2006 about the wind down, the Jays currently sit with a
rotation of:
|
|
|
ERA
|
Innings
|
BB/9
|
K/9
|
VORP
|
|
No. 1
|
Roy Halladay
|
3.19
|
220.0
|
1.39
|
5.40
|
+68.0
|
|
No. 2
|
A.J. Burnett
|
3.98
|
135.2
|
2.59
|
7.83
|
+25.3
|
|
No. 3
|
Gus Chacin
|
5.05
|
87.1
|
3.92
|
4.84
|
+8.7
|
|
No. 4
|
Shaun Marcum
|
5.06
|
78.1
|
4.37
|
7.47
|
+9.4
|
|
No. 5
|
Casey Janssen
|
5.07
|
94.0
|
2.01
|
4.21
|
+6.1
|
|
No. 5
|
Josh
Towers
|
8.42
|
8.42
|
2.47
|
5.08
|
-18.9
|
Thoughts: The big need is for the Jays to stay healthy and have two or
three starters throw 200 innings, to give the bullpen and minor league shuttle
a break. In a perfect world Chacin would be an above-average No. 4 starter when
healthy, but he is a below-average No. 3 starter. If Burnett can stay healthy
he is one of the better No. 2 starters in baseball, especially if Halladay –
one of the top five No. 1 starters in baseball – continues to rub off on him. Janssen
should continue to improve, having been mainly a hitter in college. He has only
been a full-time pitcher for less than three years. It is interesting to see
that Marcum, who struggled early and battled consistency, had the second-best
K/9 ratio in the rotation. If he keeps this up, he could become a strikeout
pitcher. However, his calling card in the minors was his control, which has
been fairly absent during his stays in the majors.
Shaun Marcum RHP:
|
|
ERA
|
Innings
|
BB/9
|
K/9
|
VORP
|
|
2003 – SS
|
0.65
|
34.0
|
2.7
|
7.4
|
4.9
|
|
2004 – A
|
3.19
|
79.0
|
2.4
|
5.5
|
1.8
|
|
2004 – A+
|
3.12
|
69.1
|
0.7
|
6.0
|
1.9
|
|
2005 – AA
|
2.53
|
53.1
|
2.1
|
4.6
|
10.3
|
|
2005 – AAA
|
4.95
|
103.2
|
1.7
|
6.2
|
4.7
|
Notes: As you can see his BB/9 ration is almost double what
it was in the minors. It will be interesting to see if he has altered his
mechanics and/or approach (ie. nibbling) subconsciously due to nerves or if it
has more to do with the quality of hitters in The Show. As well, strangely
enough, his K/9 ration has also increased significantly (a full batter per nine
innings), which does not tend to happen to young pitchers graduating to the
majors. Personally, I have always felt Marcum had as much upside as any of the
starters in the crop of: Marcum, Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Josh Banks, Ismael
Ramirez, Mike MacDonald, Kyle Yates, Davis Romero and, at this point, David
Purcey. Personally though, I always thought Marcum would perform better as a
two-inning set-up man in the bullpen, which is where he pitched in college and
during his first year in pro ball. But that said, he has a better chance to
remain in the rotation than Janssen (lacks out-pitch), Taubenheim (two-pitch
repertoire), Banks (HR/9), Ramirez (stuff), MacDonald (stuff), Yates
(below-average fastball), Romero (size/durability) and Purcey
(command/control). I will therefore dub Marcum my 2007 Jays sleeper pick.
Other pitching (As of Dec. 29, 2006):
Best 1-2 punch in baseball
1. Toronto (Hallday, Burnett)
2. New York (AL) (Mussina, Wang)
3. Boston (Schilling, Beckett)
4. Chicago (NL) (Zambrano, Lilly)
5. Detroit (Bonderman, Rogers)
Best 1-2-3 punch in baseball
1. Detroit (Bonderman, Rogers, Verlander)
2. San Diego (Peavy, Young, Maddux)
3. Los Angeles (NL) (Schmidt, Lowe, Penny)
4. Chicago (AL) (Buehrle, Contreras, Garland)
5. Los Angeles (AL) (Lackey, Colon, Escobar)
Best 1-2-3-4 punch in baseball
1. Chicago (AL) (Buehrle, Contreras, Garland, Vazquez)
2. Cleveland (Sabathia, Lee, Westbrook, Sowers)
3. Los Angeles (AL) (Lackey, Colon, Escobar, Santana)
4. Philadelphia (Myers, Garcia, Hamels, Lieber)
5. Los Angeles (NL) (Schmidt, Lowe, Penny, Wolf)
Best 1-2-3-4-5 punch in baseball
1. Los Angeles (NL) (Schmidt, Lowe, Penny, Wolf, Billingsley)
2. Cleveland (Sabathia, Lee, Westbrook, Sowers, Byrd)
3. Philadelphia (Myers, Garcia, Hamels, Lieber, Moyer)
4. Los Angeles (AL) (Lackey, Colon, Escobar, Santana, Weaver)
Best No. 4 starter (VORP)
NYY Randy Johnson (12.3)
CWS Javier Vasquez (22.8)
PHI Jon Lieber (13.6)
LAA Jared Weaver (46.5)
SF Matt Cain (34.9)
Best No. 5 starter (VORP)
CLE Jeremy Sowers (23.0)
PHI Jamie Moyer (20.6)
LAD Chad Billingsley (17.0)
Pitching-John Zinnicker
John Zinnicker LHP
Height: 6’2’’ Weight: 190
Age: 7/84 Signed: 2006 (35-St. Bonaventure) Options: 3
Repertoire: Unavailable
|
2006
|
3.25
|
27.2
|
34
|
10-24
|
.298
|
Pulaski
|
Secondary Stats:
Vs Left: .216
Vs Right: .338
Bases Empty: .291
Runners On: .305
Scoring Position: .290
WHIP: 1.57
GO/AO: 4.73
Notes: Zinnicker, a lefty with good size, was tied for fourth in holds in Appalachian League in his debut. He was too hittable, but had a remarkable 4.73 ground balls for every fly ball, so his defence may have been partially at fault. He needs to have more success against right-handed batters. Zinnicker struggled in the final month of the season, allowing 21 hits in 13.2 innings. As well, he allowed 10 hits and five runs in his final two outings (2.2 innings) of the season, which skewed his overall numbers. Zinnicker did not allow a home run all season.
Pitching-Adam Rogers
Adam Rogers RHP
Height: 6’4’’ Weight: 235
Age: 10/84 Signed: 2006 (31-) Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-90
(92) fastball, change, fringe slider
|
2006
|
3.74
|
33.2
|
28
|
2-22
|
.215
|
Pulaski
|
|
|
0.00
|
3.2
|
3
|
0-2
|
.200
|
Lansing
|
Secondary Stats (Pulaski):
Vs Left: .091
Vs Right: .241
Bases Empty: .198
Runners On: .250
Scoring Position: .250
WHIP: 0.89
GO/AO: 1.69
Notes:
Rogers is durable and projects to be a one or two inning reliever. His change-up is
his best pitch and he is working on his slider. Rogers is a competitive player and ranked fourth
in holds in the Appalachian League in his debut.
Career batting stats versus Yankees
The Blue Jays projected starting lineup’s career numbers (AVG/OPS) versus the projectedYankee starters:
|
|
Randy Johnson
|
Mike Mussina
|
Chien-Ming Wang
|
Andy Pettitte
|
Carl Pavano
|
Kei Igawa
|
|
Reed Johnson
|
.417/1.111
|
.273/.818
|
.200/.533
|
.000/.250
|
—
|
—
|
|
Aaron Hill
|
.500/1.292
|
.273/.637
|
.667/1.714
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
|
Vernon Wells
|
.267/.913
|
.365/.915
|
.182/.431
|
.500/1.395
|
.250/.875
|
—
|
|
Troy Glaus
|
.667/2.636
|
.231/.671
|
.000/.167
|
.323/1.174
|
.000/.000
|
—
|
|
Frank Thomas
|
.233/1.017
|
.385/1.313
|
.000/.000
|
.359/1.141
|
.500/1.500
|
—
|
|
Alex Rios
|
.500/1.462
|
.267/.600
|
.167/.453
|
.385/.856
|
.400/1.400
|
—
|
|
Lyle
Overbay
|
.200/.400
|
.083/.381
|
.333/.833
|
.111/.222
|
.000/.400
|
—
|
|
Gregg Zaun
|
.263/.616
|
.217/.584
|
.000/.167
|
.000/.000
|
.083/.237
|
—
|
|
Royce Clayton
|
.310/.907
|
.308/.770
|
—
|
.385/.856
|
.154/.385
|
—
|
Notes: By looking at the
above numbers it appears the Jays will be disappointed if Randy Johnson is
indeed traded to a National League West team, as has been rumored at various
sources (including rotoworld.com/mlb). One pitcher the Jays would not miss is
groundball machine Chien-Ming Wang, assuming his sinker continues to dart (2.92
ground balls for every fly ball in his MLB career). The fly ball happy Jays
just can’t adapt to him. Nor can they outsmart the wily Mike Mussina, who
struggles only against new multi-millionaire Vernon Wells and new Jay
(long-time multi-millionaire) Frank Thomas. Fellow newcomer Royce Clayton
appears to hit New York Yankee pitchers well, aside from the
perpetually-injured Carl Pavano. Kei Igawa, should he find himself in the
starting rotation, will likely have an advantage over the Jays’ batters for the
first portion of the season, at the very least.
In case you were curious:
The
top five career hitters (.OPS) against each of the top five New York Yankees’ starting pitchers are (minimum 20 plate appearances):
Randy Johnson:
Chipper Jones (1.488), Rene Gonzales (1.480), Cory
Snyder (1.163), Chris Hoiles (1.131), Ty Wigginton (1.120).
Mike Mussina:
John Jaha (1.387), Raul
Ibanez (1.379), Frank Thomas (1.313), Albert
Belle (1.312), Mike MacFarlane (1.244).
Chien-Ming Wang (minimum 15 PA):
Manny Ramirez (1.919), Eric Hinske (1.897), David Ortiz (1.315 – three
Sox in a row!), Mark Loretta (1.063), Jorge Cantu (1.000).
Andy Pettitte:
Vernon Wells (1.395), Randy Velarde (1.395), Geronimo
Berroa (1.317), Jeff Cirillo (1.311), Herb Perry (1.262).
Carl Pavano:
Shawn Green (1.444), John Olerud (1.439),
Cliff Floyd (1.290), Sammy Sosa (1.110), Jimmy Rollins (1.080).
Rain delay information:
Chien-Ming Wang’s name is
really Chien-Min Wang, but it was misspelled when he applied for a passport.
(source: Wikipedia)
*Stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com
mlblogsoutofthenest
Recent Comments